Mkt Cap $191K Volume $56
|$0.00059313฿ 0.00000009||$191K||$56 NYAN 94K||+3.52%|
Mining activity this week has been all over the place. Difficulty is typically around 100, but has been as low as 19 and as high as 600. There have been gaps of several hours between blocks.
There have been some rather large changes as well, such as this example: https://www.nyanchain.com/ex.nyan?20-2299488 where difficulty has gone from 30 to 486 in a single block, yet a few blocks later is down to 90.
All this is similar to the problems of old, where drive by mining resulted in gaps of several days, however it's nowhere near as bad as that this time. The difficulty adjustment algorithm certainly isn't optimal - however given that many other coins have had similar problems, others may not be any better and could even be worse.
I haven't had a lot to say lately. There hasn't been a whole lot new. I've gotten back into making chainmail again, which I haven't done since high school, along with following Tesla news obsessively because of my gamble on it. And, of course, doing the 9-5.
It's not a bad life, by any means. Considering that two years ago I was broke and homeless, while I now am renting a comfortable place I have all to myself and am making a good salary, I should probably be more enthusiastic about it than that.
It's not that I'm bored in the moment: if I get bored of chainmail, I can read for a while. Or I can listen to music and play some video games. There's always something else I want to do, and more things I want to do than time to do them in.
But taken at a broader perspective, the weeks pass by and nothing really changes. I do relatively simple tasks at work, with minor frustrations here and there which seem important at the time, but fade to nothing in hindsight. After the excitement of hitting it big with Raiblocks / Nano, it's pretty boring just getting the steady paycheck.
And yet this is the productive, sound path. I've certainly had occasion to learn what happens if I step off it. I'm trying to go from having a great reserve fund to having enough money to actually be financially independent for the rest of my life, and as I see it, I have three routes at the moment:
First, the crypto market could go through another boom like at the end of the last year and my NANO or even, in a totally crazy world, perhaps my NYAN could be suddenly worth a substantial amount (not that they aren't, at least in theory, now, but the former not as much as I'd like, being rather lower than its peak currently, and the latter being both lower than I'm willing to sell at as well as being very close to nonexistent volume currently); however, I'm not holding my breath on this one. I think it'll probably be a year or two at least before the markets are ready for another bull run like that again; it had been years between the peaks before with a long slow period in between.
Second, in theory, with a good income like I'm making now I could save up for perhaps a decade and with some reasonable investing have a very solid amount of money which combined with a much lower cost of living might lead to financial independence. That's the reasonable path and it's the option I'm keeping open by continuing to work. But I have a hard time seeing myself working for another decade.
Third, I've got my bets against Tesla. I'm feeling pretty comfortable with them, although it's disconcerting being rather confident they're in such serious trouble while also seeing the price so unaffected. The outcome here is going to be fairly telling in my view as a verdict on my judgement. If Tesla survives, I've badly misread and cannot expect that I can "beat the market". If Tesla goes bankrupt or its stock price crashes badly in the next year or so, then it's at least an indicator that I might be able to find major mispricing and it'll be a nice win in itself too.
But all of them require patience and a level of detachment. It's not necessarily my forte: I certainly don't like to wait for a year or more. And it feels like somehow I should need to be doing something more to have a chance. Working fast food felt more like a path to riches: not because it actually was in any way (spoiler: it's not), but just because actually doing hard work feels like it should be a path to success.
As I continue to be amazed by though, the most money I ever made was from something that wasn't even work (the Raiblocks faucet and eventual sales at the start of the year) and the hardest work I ever did (fast food) paid the least. Life ain't fair, and money especially so. It does have its own logic, though.
So, here I am, and here I remain. But eventually I'll move on again and find new adventures. In the meantime, I try to be useful at work and otherwise stick to my knitting, literally and figuratively.
I don't know that either of the two standard catch-phrases really fit here to close. While this might lead to higher heights, it seems too uncertain or too slow to quite fit. But I rather like the title phrase. Perhaps it'll be appropriate again in the future. And so I am
Treading Water to Victory!
Hey, I work for a company called Mind Audio Central, we make ASMR, subliminals, Binurals, Guided Meditation and so on. It was a company made by 5 friends. We were once highly successful but that all changed when our youtube channel was taken down. Without the ad revenue, we plummeted in profit dramatically. We don't like to beg but when push comes to shove. It is a necessary evil. The nyanbegging subreddit looked as though it has not been used. We come here with a deal/proposal. 9,242,906 Nyancoins in return, we will make nyancoin a form of payment when we do commissions and custom music. We will also advertise nyancoin on our website. So please help us. We want to continue to do what we love. Making mind audio is a passion of ours. I personally don't want to see it crumble. We are asking the nyancoin community for your help.
So you want to rehab a coin, eh? Decided that cryptocurrency is your game, and you're going to play it by finding something out there which already exists but is falling apart, and turn it around and make it Bitcoin 2.0, right?
Live the dream! But do it safely and carefully. I'll tell you how, for free (no guarantees of success; just my best guesses and personal experience so far; tanstaafl <=> you get what you pay for). No subscription, just read this. Why? I like to talk about what I like to do. And this is something I find very fun to do. After all, it's mostly been a hobby for me on the side.
"Coin rehabbing" is an idea I started to have around 2015, looking around at the explosion of coins and the low market caps of many of them as well as how many were dying off due to being abandoned. This made it so that it felt like you could just pick any idea you could think of: red, cat, dragon, whatever, and there's some clonecoin or something which is branded with it and many of them were cheap enough that buying 1% or something wasn't necessarily a big deal.
Now, I'll note that deciding to do a "coin rehabbing" approach is very different from a diversified, passive approach, which would take a little bit of a lot of these and 'forget' about them (but of course, not really forget or else would lose the value...). That latter, conservative and straightforward approach is one I would strongly recommend as a starting point to a newbie into cryptocurrency, after first starting with a basic starting coin or two (not that I'm giving investing advice, of course; heaven forfend!).
Coin rehabbing should be a decidedly advanced technique more for experts, or at least, more journeyman level than apprentice, although I'll admit I had no great knowledge when I started.
The switch from a passive to active investor can be fairly subtle or gradual in cryptocurrency. For me, it was rather intertwined almost from the very start with NYAN, although for many more coins I bought a tiny bit and did nothing with it. But with NYAN, I was doing the coin-a-day series at the time, and so published a piece on /cryptocurrency about it right from the start. I believe that post probably made some impact both then and at the time, even though it was not at all obvious to me at that time.
Of course, with cryptocurrency and Reddit, commenting about a cryptocurrency one owns is enough to at least make it grey if one is a passive or active investor (or gambler) at that point.
Regardless, for the rest of this and eventually these, I'll presume the reader has a basic familiarity but can always expand further upon request in comments or messages and may edit further later.
Okay, so, onto the heart of the matter: making your choice. I'd known there was Bitcoin for a while, and was gradually becoming aware there were a lot more coins out there. I figured there might actually be something of value somewhere, and a lot of them seemed pretty interesting, so I decided to just start looking around. I strongly recommend this approach. Start to read about as many different coins out there as you can. Produce write-ups. Publish those write-ups. Get feedback on them. Repeat. No buying or selling necessary or even particularly desirable until one has done this research (this despite my earlier claim that a person should be somewhat experienced; I'll say that it's the technical experience and not the size of the transaction (though perhaps its complexity sometimes, but just the basics are fine to start - I've never done a multisig yet myself) which is important). In fact, based on what I've found in the stock market, I feel like I was able to far more dispassionately observe it before I was betting it, just as one would expect.
The barrier to entry is very low to start to get involved with a coin, but it can be fairly high to maintain a presence with a coin, or it can be fairly low, depending on the approach one takes. Personally, I don't bother to follow almost anything at this point, just because I'm doing other things for the most part, but if I had more free time I'd definitely look at what is going on with a few different coins. But I think it makes sense to start to talk to a few different coins you're interested in just to get a feel for the variety and similarity of different communities and figure out what sort of opportunities interest you. The great thing about volunteer work is there's often plenty of it to go around. The less fortunate thing about it is there is still often a surprisingly large amount of politics going on.
Personally, I chose a "deadcoin" to adopt both because I wanted the ultimate challenge and also because I figured it would give me the best tabula rasa since no one would oppose anything I wanted to do with the coin, since there was no one else interested. Of course, this is a very slight exaggeration since there were some who still held coins at that point and of course there was Prohashing still running the pool and Cryptsy still listing the coin. I think it was about as close to a minimum viable coin as possible at that point. Technically, it would be possible to restart a coin from a stored blockchain even after the mining went down and the exchange was lost by restarting mining oneself and paying for a listing (or making an exchange, but that's a whole different type of challenge of even greater magnitude which I personally intend to never attempt myself). But I'm lazier than that, and since there were coins that had it anyhow, I didn't see any reason to bother with that. Besides, I didn't have any coins which I'd been running a node of and had some chain stored I wanted to revive.
I strongly recommend not doing what I did, in many ways, but that one included, because it is a much greater challenge. I think it's a better idea to be a "junior partner" type of position with a small coin that you like rather than trying to rekindle a fading ember. When you do well, you do better than you would've otherwise: the only money I've ever taken out of cryptocurrency has been from Nano (né Raiblocks), where I was a passive investor for over a year, not even realizing it was still alive after getting a bunch for free on the original faucet (I actually kind of needed the distraction at the time anyhow; rather enjoyed listening to X Minus One and playing ReCaptcha; international street and forest and such is actually kind of cool to see). That was in a lot of ways a complete strike of luck, but at the same time, it's one I wouldn't have been in the position to get lucky on if it hadn't been for the fact that I'd been writing and publishing my thoughts about cryptocurrency and what it should be, in that case, that transaction costs should be low or free if possible.
This is the key I think: as you look among these many options, what do you value? Not simply in the concept of trying to figure out the beauty contest of what other people will value, but what do you value? This is really the question, because since this is gambling and playing around with the very concept of value, it's pretty important by starting to define it for oneself.
To me, a long-term, forthright and frankly simple approach is the key. I'm lazy. I want things to be easy. Trying to trick people is not easy. Trying to trick people in cryptocurrency is especially not easy (despite how easy Buttcoin makes it look) as they're a group used to being tricked (as contradictory as that seems to the claim it's not easy to trick them, resolved: there is a stream of easy marks but I don't think the regulars are easy marks). And I'm not interested in having a lot of features to maintain and bugs to fix from those features and vanity changes or obfuscatory changes. That's all just a bunch of extra work.
Other than being honest and easy, I wanted to find a coin with a capped supply. I find the concept of a fixed supply of tokens of value very interesting since it takes away one of the core concepts of what we're used to with currency. I wanted to be able to have a million somethings myself, so it should have at least like 100+ of them so that I could always maintain at least that amount fairly reasonably.
And I was lucky enough to be in the right time and place to be looking at NYAN with its max supply of 337 million coins and thinking to myself that a million of them certainly looked pretty affordable. So I decided to adopt it. There wasn't one moment, at least that I can recall now, where I decided this, but as I bought more and learned more I decided I wanted to see where it could go. I haven't always been able to put as much time and effort into it as I would have liked but it's managed to survive, which I attribute mostly to having chosen well initially (and, most importantly and perhaps related: from the surprisingly large number of other people who have helped out before and after I got involved) rather than any particularly spectacular skill or decision making after, apart from perhaps patience and sustained interest.
In particular, I rather like having a clonecoin. It's well understood, which helps on absolutely everything from maintenance to listing to mining. It's true that it doesn't given any particular special advantages or different tech, but at the same time, it doesn't get any special disadvantages either. In cryptocurrency, I think that sort of "herd immunity" is more important than trying to be trailblazing, despite the fact that Nano/Raiblocks and many of the other currently most successful coins are not clones (and yet at least a couple are, which are generally now not thought of as clones since they exceed at least their direct ancestor now (Litecoin and Monero are the ones that come to mind, from Tenebrix and Bytecoin iirc as I'm too lazy to look up)).
That is one coin rehabbing selection I did that I would recommend to others who want an easy approach rather than a hard approach. And, conversely, it's an area where I gave myself a handicap instead of some "ultimate challenge". I knew that if I went for some huge challenge from the technical side it was extremely unlikely to survive. Instead, I wanted just an economic challenge rather than a technical one: how does a market cap, or more generally, the valuation of a coin rise over time? Sounds fairly simple, but is the key to a lot of cryptocurrency, and involves most of the rest of it.
It's led me to believing that the community is the basis of both the technical and financial results (on the latter, at least ultimately; more short-term wandering speculation without any particular interest certainly can have a major impact as well but for the most part my guess is that the market of a cryptocurrency will tend to reflect the financial interest and strength of the community behind it over the long-term), as I saw my own interest drive the price as I bid myself up trying to buy up as much NYAN as I could particularly in the first couple months I got involved at the start of 2015 (and bidding against some others from time to time), and then my lack of extra money to keep bidding at that rate and increasing the price eventually coincide with a sudden massive sale that ended that first initial bull market of the revival in early March 2015. For a long time, the chart of NYAN was basically a chart of my own financial health. In a lot of ways, it still is, but not as a result of me being the primary buyer at this point (I don't think; haven't logged into Cryptopia in quite a while; I suspect my last bids at this level whenever I placed them were filled and someone else is currently at this price as it's often been for a while now). Eventually, of course, for a coin to be meaningful, it probably should have more than one buyer, but NYAN survived with mostly me as the majority of its market for some time. Long enough there were certainly points I considered it a potential concern, but I was in no rush to do outreach marketing for a lot of reasons, particularly the many, many risks. Besides, I've always tried to stay fine with the idea that the coin can completely fail, because, of course, it can. So a lack of demand isn't particularly concerning when it happens or a massive sale, as I tend to expect them. Frankly, the rises should be more concerning, as they're the biggest opportunity for mistake and when it's most important to try to make sure people aren't making rash decisions or getting reckless. I regret not having shouted warnings in here more about a likely bubble during the last rise, which peaked at the start of this year but after such a long drought I'd been hopeful that it was less of a bubble than it appears obvious as in hindsight.
Okay, that's rather rambly and could really use an edit rather than a publish, but if I save for editing, I'll never do the rewrite and won't publish, and if I publish, I may someday revise and perhaps it'll be of some use or interest in current form so...here it is! I assert this is of no value whatsoever and thus is provided for no cost. I also assert it thus has no warranty, you shouldn't trade based on it, and you just generally should live a safe and cautious life, eat your vegetables, and live to a ripe old age comfortably and happily.
Chapter Motto (to be lovingly stolen from GoT House words): Growing Strong
This won't affect anyone using semi-recent browsers and operating systems, as they all support TLS v1.1 / v1.2 by default already and have done for many years.
Anyone who is affected would have to be using things such as:
Website visitor logs indicate less than 0.1% of requests are using such things, 0% on some days, and that data isn't guaranteed to be 100% correct anyway, so in reality, no one is using them.
Anyone who really is using ancient browsers / OS will not be able to access the websites - but this will apply to vast numbers of other sites as well, including anything to do with payment, as from 30 June 2018, all PCI DSS sites can't use TLSv1.0 any more. https://blog.pcisecuritystandards.org/are-you-ready-for-30-june-2018-sayin-goodbye-to-ssl-early-tls - and that has been in the works for several years, so many sites have already removed support for v1.0
Descent left as a later issue. Along with survival and travel in space.
Just thinking about launch, what's the best way to get into space and why? Safety and cost are both critical factors obviously.
If we ignore cost, I'd say space elevator is the best idea I've ever heard. And once someone builds it, it should, at least so its proponents claim, be cheaper than the other methods as well. So perhaps this is the route we should consider best. If there are good arguments against it other than, essentially, cost and difficulty / time / research of setup, I don't know them.
Otherwise, there's obviously many varieties of rockets. This is the standard, basic choice, but that doesn't make it wrong or easy or cheap. "Many" people have done it, but it's still been the project of major governments or billionaires so far. I know little to nothing of rocketry, but would certainly be interested in reading good introductions to what's available, and more interested in hearing about any clever ideas people have heard of in this area.
There are also catapults of various designs. This might be easier and cheaper than an elevator, although I'm not certain of that. It has the advantage (or disadvantage) of putting something into an orbit differently than an elevator (I think there are some ways that can make a difference (including the idea of a city at the end of the elevator), but maybe that somehow doesn't really make a difference or a significant advantage / disadvantage (for instance, perhaps the orbital mechanics problem of matching orbits coming out of the catapult is basically as easy and so there's an orbiting "city" station vs "stationary" but works out the same?).
It seemed to me though, just sort of on hunch and memories of various sci fi stories, that a space elevator seems like the absolute best option, as well as "base" (in this case rather literally) for space.
Also, it happens to solve the problem we weren't looking to solve of descent. And suggests some initial answers for survival, although not travel.
New NYAN 2050 goal: space elevator?
Edit: Reading through the linked Wikipedia page for space elevators, it looks like basically current materials don't make it possible. So that'll be the first couple decades of the NYAN Space Elevator project: wait for magic 21st century space materials to come onto the market.
Cryptopia continues as the primary exchange with most of the trading volume. All working, although deposits in Nyan are confirmed after 200 blocks so will take 3-4 hours typically.
Novaexchange have enabled deposits for BTC, LTC and DOGE from today, although new user registrations are still disabled so it's only for those already registered (I do not have an account there). They have also stated that 'We will no longer be able to accept customers with citizenship and/or residence in the United States.' and have made various other changes. Nyan markets still present although no activity. Details on their news page, https://novaexchange.com/news/
Tradesatoshi has been far more reliable for the last several months, and the NYAN/BTC market does have at least some trading at prices comparable to Cryptopia, although it is sporadic and in small amounts. Having used their system, it does have the advantage that deposits / withdraws are processed quickly, deposits confirmed after only 6 blocks, and withdraws are processed in a few minutes.
Companies will not need to have any knowledge of Bitcoin or the Blockchain to use Resolvr and the bidding system. They’ll be able to bid on services using fiat currency, but that fiat will run through an AXP layer and be converted automatically. While the AXP token will be used in the e-bidding process, the team is actively testing new ways in which the token can be used.
AXP token (AXP) is an Ethereum blockchain-based decentralized application (dapp) token. The ERC223 standard token is indeed an enhanced version of its predecessor ERC20 standard. However, the Apache licensed aXpire network is open source, which means it will be available to use free of cost. For you to invest in aXpire, you will have to buy its AXP tokens. You will be able to buy the AXP tokens during the sale. The Initial Coin Offering (ICO) has already began on January 8 and it will last until March 22. While you still have some time to invest, it is important to notice that the company has put a hard cap of $20 million USD on the sale and it will be finished as soon as it reaches this value.
This is a continuation of the piece I wrote about why I'm betting against TSLA.
I've placed a variety of bets since then. I'm up on a few and down on some others. Overall the portfolio is up a nominal amount so far, but it fluctuates a lot every day.
I have three bets which have fairly good gains so far: two shorts and one long. One of the shorts I've closed, because while I believe it can go to zero, its extreme 'hard-to-borrow' fees at 120% per year (which I hadn't realized, due to being clueless, when I'd started the position) make it far too risky to keep open. The other long and short I'm letting ride for now.
The other short is a tiny market cap (although still more than a 100x NYAN's), but slightly negative book value and losing money and pumped up struck me as a good target.
The long is a small company you might've heard of: Apple. While I generally consider tech overpriced, its P/E seems to me quite reasonable, and I was lucky to get in on the dip before the earnings call, when there was worry about the Iphone X sales (a short-term consideration I didn't really care about one way or another) and before the news broke of Buffet investing more in it in Q1 (a lucky break and nice to see my sloppy guesswork saw some of the same 'blue-chip tech company' aspects he presumably liked).
So that's three bets which have done reasonably well so far. Most of the rest of mine haven't moved too much one way or another.
But my bets against Tesla, so far, are down about $2,000 or so, on bets totalling about $40,000. It's not a massive move, all things considered, but enough to basically account for two of the three wins and leave my portfolio, so far, basically neutral.
These bets are by far larger than any other single position I have. And they make my portfolio largely inversely correlated with TSLA's share price.
Many people, even with doubts about Tesla's viability, have said they wouldn't bet against Musk. And I don't blame them. I consider it by no means certain myself. Still, I'm comfortable with my bets and am curious to see how it plays out.
As I see it, the company unquestionably will still need a significant capital infusion. And the the most important thing to come out of the Q1 earnings call was a continued denial of that. Why exactly Tesla is not raising more money via equity is an open question, but in my view it fundamentally doesn't matter.
The product is great in many ways, and the demand really is pretty good. The problem is they're not making money, and Musk's micromanagement is the cause and will not be the solution.
He's driven away many great people and I believe that the company as a result will continue to build and sell more cars and bleed more money. I'm skeptical that another equity raise can save them at this point: the amount they would need will continue to rise and they'll continue to produce financial results which I expect will continue to demonstrate they are not capable of achieving economies of scale sufficient to lead to profitability.
During Q3 and after its results are released I expect this to be borne out. I anticipate it can survive Q2 although with significant damage and feeding the bankruptcy narrative which will become more pronounced. Q3 will be presented as the make-or-break, and I expect it will break them.
Now, this is just arm-chair quarter-backing. I cannot know. And many people, somewhat reasonably, expect miracles out of Musk. But while he has demonstrated an ability to micromanage a new and interesting product with some compelling advances, he hasn't demonstrated a manufacturing or financial skill to lead to profitability. Even an expert in those areas would have a hard time playing from this sand trap, so I don't expect Musk will manage it.
But it'll be interesting to watch this play out. Because I would say the majority of those who have a strong opinion one way or another are still on the side that he will succeed, and it includes many intelligent and wealthy people particularly in software fields. If Tesla really falls, I think there will actually be relatively little re-evaluation of positions by those who supported it: the narrative is already prepared about how Big Oil is fighting Tesla and so forth. It will never be seen as Musk's failure.
My view though is that Musk is the tragic hero figure whose strengths led to Tesla's current position and whose weaknesses will lead to its demise (or at least Chapter 11).
Of course, if I'm wrong, it will sting a bit. Though it won't bankrupt me by any means.
If I'm right, it'll be a nice start to what I hope will be a long-term gambling hobby, hopefully chasing easier targets in the future.
Either way, this seems to me to be even more entertaining than a good poker game, with a similar combination of elements of luck and skill, the latter presumably gaining out over the long-run.
Please note that I am not recommending any particular trades. I present my gambling for entertainment, not as advice. If anything, I think it's better if others in the community are not following the same path I am, to maximize the chances that some of us win...
i am attemping to importprivkey a paperwallet into the core client. i pulled it from nyancoin.info so it should be up to date and my blockchain is done syncing.
inputing the command does not result in anything happening. no error no confirmation etc. i try putting in random commands too. no response.
e: there was no prompt, but suddenly, it was RAINING NYANS. wallet has been imported into my nyan-qt and it is properly displaying all errors and successful import log :)